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http://www.ew.com/ew/article/commentary/0,6115,1148033_1||1145818|0_0_,00.htmlI
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The Oscar Race Begins 
Who's in the running for a statue? We predict the stars, directors, and movies you'll see on the ballot 
ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLYK\d
by Dave Karger  
BEST PICTUREUo6
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Even the biggest fan of the category-defying Brokeback Mountain  has to feel a little guilty over its utter dominance this awards season. The film scored the most Broadcast Film Critics award nominations, the most Golden Globe nominations, and the most SAG award nominations of any movie. It has also racked up 11 best-picture prizes from critics' groups, including those in New York, Los Angeles, and Boston, and even such heartland locales as Las Vegas and Utah, where one theater banned the film last weekend. Meanwhile, no other film has won more than two prizes to date. We're gambling it just might manage to squeak out a nod in this category.J^
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But close on its heels are three other films that also made the short lists of all four guild awards (producers, directors, actors, and writers): George Clooney's expertly crafted Good Night, and Good Luck, which won top honors from the National Board of Review; Crash, the Altmanesque ensemble drama that could end up as the top-grossing Best Picture nominee; and Capote, which has risen to likely contender status after a surprisingly poor showing (only one nomination) at the Golden Globes. The Producers Guild gave its fifth slot to Walk the Line, one of the few bona fide hits left in the race. But a growing ''great performances, okay movie'' sentiment among Academy members ¡X as well as its so-soon-after-Ray release date ¡X may relegate it to sixth place. Similarly, Cinderella Man earned terrific reviews last summer but simply doesn't feel like a fresh choice just a year after Million Dollar Baby. Match Point and Pride & Prejudice both emerged as Golden Globe faves, but their total shutout from all the guild awards (though Pride was ineligible for the Writers Guild) sounded the death knell for their chances. And Memoirs of a Geisha , early on considered a sure thing given its lavish production scale, was met with reviews so harsh         that it'll have to settle for recognition in several technical categories     . Then there's Syriana, A History of Violence, and The Constant Gardener, three tough dramas that have their ardent fans but may not find their way onto enough ballots to land in the top five.a6[
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Could King Kong muscle its way onto this list after all? Its near-universal critical praise certainly indicated that it might. But its box office beating at the hands of The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe may end up being too great a symbolic defeat to overcome. That leaves Munich, Steven Spielberg's battered and bruised contender whose stealth campaign (embarrassingly late screeners, hardly any interviews by the filmmaker) seems to have backfired so far. But our guess is that when the Academy finally gets the chance to see the thing, they'll forgive ¡X just barely.o
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BEST ACTOR55[(
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Given that the vast majority of today's films are driven by male performances, scoring a Best Actor nomination is no easy feat. But it's infinitely more difficult when the category already includes four locks. We'll start with the megalocks: Philip Seymour Hoffman   and Heath Ledger . The Capote and Brokeback Mountain leads both play gay men: Hoffman as the duplicitous author Truman Capote and Ledger as the taciturn ranch hand Ennis Del Mar. They've also both never been nominated for an Oscar, though Hoffman has come close before, earning a Screen Actors Guild award nod for Flawless. And they've both hogged all of this year's critics' awards. Between Hoffman's 15 victories and Ledger's 5, all their competitors' mantels have simply been gathering dust.%
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Then there are the just plain regular locks: Joaquin Phoenix and David Strathairn. Like Hoffman, they tackle real people on screen ¡X Phoenix as musician Johnny Cash in Walk the Line, Strathairn as newscaster Edward R. Murrow in Good Night, and Good Luck ¡X and they pull it off with such skill that a second nomination for Phoenix (following Gladiator) and a career first for Strathairn seem like done deals.#N5[a
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So who will snag that elusive fifth slot? Give it to the most underestimated contender of all: Russell Crowe. With one toss of a telephone, he was in danger of erasing all the positive ink he'd earned for his physically and emotionally powerful performance as boxer James J. Braddock (yet another real-life character) in Cinderella Man. As a result, he's been a ''surprise'' nominee at the Golden Globes, SAG awards, and Broadcast Critics. At this point, the only surprise will be if he doesn't land his fourth Oscar nod.TI
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But if somehow the actors' branch turns out to be a bunch of hotel-concierge sympathizers, there are a few guys waiting in the wings to take Crowe's place. Hustle & Flow breakout Terrence Howard was the story of Sundance and even propelled his cast to a best-ensemble SAG nomination, but although the Academy has taken a shine to hookers in the past, it's easy to imagine they'd snub a pimp. Jeff Daniels gives a career-capping performance as a newly divorced dad in The Squid and the Whale, though its subtleties may be lost on some voters. Likewise, Viggo Mortensen's slow burn in A History of Violence is probably too internal to draw attention to itself. If Munich is able to mount a last-minute surge, its star, Eric Bana, could benefit, though he hasn't had any awards recognition thus far. And although Cillian Murphy scored a Globe nod for his cross-dressing hero in Breakfast on Pluto, its poor box office showing means that this year's Best Actor race won't end up with a third gay character.K"rZ
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BEST ACTRESS^[
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This year's crop of critics' prizes catapulted two women from very different projects to the forefront of the Best Actress race. Reese Witherspoon's  vibrant and poignant performance as June Carter in the ambitious biopic Walk the Line has earned her victories from the New York and National critics' groups (plus eight others), while Felicity Huffman's  turn as a preoperative male-to-female transsexual in the tiny-budgeted indie Transamerica avoided any gimmicky pitfalls and won kudos from the National Board of Review. Both women will easily score their first Oscar nominations (Huffman recently won her first Emmy for Desperate Housewives).D$
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Their likely competition includes two actresses who know what it's like to reach Oscar's stage: Judi Dench, a Supporting Actress winner in 1999 for Shakespeare in Love, delivers another juicily humorous performance as a World War II-era theater owner in Mrs. Henderson Presents, while Charlize Theron, who picked up this trophy two years ago for glamming it down as serial killer Aileen Wuornos in Monster, proved herself far more than a one-hit wonder with her gritty iron miner lead in North Country.y{1_dz
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In addition to these four, the last SAG award nominee this year was Memoirs of a Geisha protagonist         Ziyi Zhang         , but lukewarm overall reaction    to the film among critics and the guild awards means she's no sure thing   . Instead, the Academy may reach back to March, when Joan Allen's brilliantly caustic alcoholic in The Upside of Anger hit theaters. Claire Danes received dream reviews for her melancholy glove-saleswoman heroine, Mirabelle Buttersfield, in Shopgirl, but the film hasn't emerged as a contender in any category. Naomi Watts proved it's possible to conjure up real emotion opposite CGI work in King Kong, but the blockbuster is still likely to be considered an effects movie, not a performance-driven one. The Los Angeles Film Critics Association surprised everyone by giving its Best Actress award to Vera Farmiga for the drug-abuse drama Down to the Bone, but you'd be hard-pressed to find many Academy members who have heard of the film, much less seen it. Past winner Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof) and four-time nominee Julianne Moore (The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio) have watched their films flop at the box office and fade from memory. And The New World newcomer Q'orianka Kilcher's impressive debut lacks the necessary character arc to reach the final five. So that last position could go to Keira Knightley, who at age 20 carries the widely respected remake of Pride & Prejudice with a blithe charm and fierce gravity way beyond her years.{('








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http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_goldderby/2006/01/oscars_predict1.html#more0V|
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And the Oscar nominees will be . . . 

When compiling my predictions for Tuesday morning's Academy Award nominations, I try to keep foremost in mind the preferential balloting system used by the motion picture academy. Although members list five choices in each category, for the most part only No. 1 and No. 2-ranked votes really count. To read more about "the rooting factor," click here. Also, it's important to keep this in mind: all academy members vote on best picture, but other categories are decided by peer group. Only actors vote on actors, directors on directors. When choosing winners later, all members get to vote in the vast majority of races.84liU'
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"Brokeback" will lead with the most nominations ¡X 10: picture, director, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, score, editing, art direction and cinematography. Over the past 20 years the movie with the most bids has won best picture 17 times.-Ug
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BEST PICTURE "Brokeback Mountain"  j)2]u
"Capote" "Crash" "Good Night and Good Luck" "Munich"6ZP;X_
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There are four good bets: "Brokeback," "Crash," "Good Night" and "Munich." They all have solid cores of support sufficient to result in nabbing the requisite 800-plus high-ranked votes from the academy's 5,800 members. The fifth slot will go to "Capote," "The Constant Gardener" or "Walk the Line." I have a hunch that "Capote" and "Gardener" have more No. 1 or No. 2 votes than "Walk the Line," which is probably ranked third or fourth on everybody's ballots except those associated with the film, its studio or its participants. Since "Capote" has registered consistent voter strength at every guild award and BAFTA, I'll go with it.g;?
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BEST DIRECTORG;r
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"  q2$'(
Paul Haggis, "Crash" George Clooney, "Good Night and Good Luck" David Cronenberg, "A History of Violence" Steven Spielberg, "Munich"G0j*i|
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Other top contenders are Bennett Miller ("Capote") and Fernando Meirelles ("The Constant Gardener"). Miller's a rookie, so his voter support is weak. Almost always there are one or two films on this list that don't line up with best picture. My guess is that's how Cronenberg sneaks in now. Photo: Terrence Howard is a fascinating wild card this year. He could pop up in both the lead and supporting actor races ¡X or neither.2i`5c
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BEST ACTOR Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote" Terrence Howard, "Hustle and Flow" Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain" Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line" David Strathairn, "Good Night and Good Luck" Sure, Russell Crowe ("Cinderella Man") and Jeff Daniels ("Squid and the Whale") have solid support, but I think Terrence Howard has more of those high-ranked votes. Crowe's name will appear on more actors' ballots over all, yes, but in that third, fourth or fifth position, methinks. If this process used a weighted ballot instead of a preferential one, Crowe would get in, but it doesn't. BEST ACTRESS Joan Allen, "The Upside of Anger" Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents" Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"   Charlize Theron, "North Country" Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"  /w#
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Ziyi Zhang ("Memoirs of a Geisha") and Keira Knightley ("Pride & Prejudice") are major rivals as well, but Joan Allen has demonstrated strong academy support in the past, nabbing three previous acting nominations. Besides, "The Upside of Anger" was one of the earliest DVDs sent to the academy's acting branch, so members probably watched it, forming an early alliance with her again.}JZR:8
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR George Clooney, "Syriana" Matt Dillon, "Crash" Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man" Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain" Bob Hoskins, "Mrs. Henderson Presents" Terrence Howard could sneak in here as well as best actor. His "Crash" costar Don Cheadle also has an excellent shot here. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams, "Junebug"m>
Maria Bello, "A History of Violence" Catherine Keener, "Capote" Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener" Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain" Poor Scarlett Johansson ("Match Point")! Snubbed again!
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µoªí¤å³¹®É¶¡2006/01/31 01:10pm¡@IP: ¤w³]©w«O±K[¥»¤å¦@ 417 ¦ì¤¸²Õ]¡@ 
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1) Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)Fr_
2) Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)%C/g
3) Judi Dench (Mrs Henderson Presents)D-}
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5) Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)3]
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  Kudos to "Brokeback Mountain" with 8 Oscar nominations.               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~V[/qp
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060131/ap_en_mo/oscar_nominations;_ylt=AmHlnE_ApCI2nmvPkwH7GiFxFb8C;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--^<!
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'Brokeback Mountain' Gets 8 Oscar Nods By DAVID GERMAIN, AP Movie Writer[g9o
5 minutes ago5;}a
The cowboy love story "Brokeback Mountain" led the Academy Awards field Tuesday with eight nominations , among them best picture and honors for actor Heath Ledger and director Ang Lee. Also nominated for best picture were the Truman Capote story "Capote";  the ensemble drama "Crash" ; the Edward R. Murrow chronicle "Good Night, and Good Luck";  the assassination thriller "Munich." The Johnny Cash biography, "Walk the Line," considered a likely best picture nominee, was shut out, though Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon earned acting nominations for the film.fM U
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George Clooney  picked up three nominations: as supporting actor for his role as a steadfast CIA undercover agent in "Syriana" and best director and co-writer for his Edward R. Murrow tale "Good Night, and Good Luck."nfrY
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Along with best-actor contender Ledger, and directing nominee Lee, "Brokeback Mountain" scored nominations for Michelle Williams as supporting actress, Jake Gyllenhaal as supporting actor and Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for their screenplay adaptation of Annie Proulx's short story.j
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The acting categories were a mix of familiar Oscar faces such as past winners Judi Dench  and Charlize Theron , veterans like Clooney, Witherspoon , Rachel Weisz, David Strathairn and Felicity Huffman  gaining their first academy attention, and young performers such as Williams and Amy Adams. X
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Philip Seymour Hoffman , the best-actor favorite for his remarkable impersonation of author Truman Capote in "Capote," joined Ledger in the best-actor category. Hoffman has triumphed at earlier film honors, including the Golden Globes.$9du9`
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Along with Hoffman, Ledger and Phoenix, the other nominees were Terrence Howard as a small-time hood turned rap singer in "Hustle & Flow" and Strathairn as newsman Murrow in "Good Night, and Good Luck."Q
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The best-actress race presumably will shape up as a two-woman contest between Huffman in a gender-bending role as a man about to undergo sex-change surgery in "Transamerica" and Witherspoon as singer June Carter, Cash's musical companion and future wife, in "Walk the Line."9a?y^
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Huffman  won the Golden Globe for best dramatic actress, while Witherspoon  earned the Globe for best actress in a musical or comedy. Witherspoon beat Huffman on Sunday for the best-actress prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.Y
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Also nominated for the best-actress Oscar were Dench  as a society dame who starts a nude stage revue in 1930s London in "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Keira Knightley  as the romantic heroine of the Jane Austen adaptation "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron  as a mine worker who leads a sexual-harassment lawsuit against male co-workers in "North Country."<FSmu
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List of Annual Academy Award Nominations By The Associated Press/qx|&
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List of the 78th annual Oscar nominations announced Tuesday in Beverly Hills, Calif., by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences:9tVKw
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1. Best Picture: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich."tQG=
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2. Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."h58beX
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3. Actress: Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."2-k\!4
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4. Supporting Actor: George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."I/AYa4
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5. Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain."1$(u
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6. Director: Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"; Bennett Miller, "Capote"; Paul Haggis, "Crash"; George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Steven Spielberg, "Munich."i\
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7. Foreign Film: "Don't Tell," Italy; "Joyeux Noel," France; "Paradise Now," Palestine; "Sophie Scholl ¡X The Final Days," Germany; "Tsotsi," South Africa.t43#H<
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8. Adapted Screenplay: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"; Dan Futterman, "Capote"; Jeffrey Caine, "The Constant Gardener"; Josh Olson, "A History of Violence"; Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich.".y(A>?
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9. Original Screenplay: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"; George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Woody Allen, "Match Point"; Noah Baumbach, "The Squid and the Whale"; Stephen Gaghan, "Syriana."e[hc3
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10. Animated Feature Film: "Howl's Moving Castle"; "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride"; "Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit."plz|p(
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11. Art Direction: "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire," "King Kong," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "Pride & Prejudice."wnST~A
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12. Cinematography: "Batman Begins," "Brokeback Mountain," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "The New World."O
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13. Sound Mixing: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," "King Kong," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "Walk the Line," "War of the Worlds."S+Pu/
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14. Sound Editing: "King Kong," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "War of the Worlds."|G j
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15. Original Score: "Brokeback Mountain," Gustavo Santaolalla; "The Constant Gardener," Alberto Iglesias; "Memoirs of a Geisha," John Williams; "Munich," John Williams; "Pride & Prejudice," Dario Marianelli.b56
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16. Original Song: "In the Deep" from "Crash," Kathleen "Bird" York and Michael Becker; "It's Hard out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow," Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard; "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica," Dolly Parton.|"m:M
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17. Costume: "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," "Memoirs of a Geisha," "Mrs. Henderson Presents," "Pride & Prejudice," "Walk the Line." 18. Documentary Feature: "Darwin's Nightmare," "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room," "March of the Penguins," "Murderball," "Street Fight." 19. Documentary (short subject): "The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club," "God Sleeps in Rwanda," "The Mushroom Club," "A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin." 20. Film Editing: "Cinderella Man," "The Constant Gardener," "Crash," "Munich," "Walk the Line." 21. Makeup: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," "Cinderella Man," "Star Wars: Episode III ¡X Revenge of the Sith." 22. Animated Short Film: "Badgered," "The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation," "The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello," "9," "One Man Band." 23. Live Action Short Film: "Ausreisser (The Runaway)," "Cashback," "The Last Farm," "Our Time Is Up," "Six Shooter." 24. Visual Effects: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," "King Kong," "War of the Worlds." ___ Academy Award winners previously announced this year: Honorary Award (Oscar statuette): Robert Altman. The Gordon E. Sawyer award (Oscar statuette): Gary Demos. gsbzl2








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