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預測一：美元將跌bvpiMc
expected, especially when Euro and Yen may raise rate while USD may cut rate. Unless, there is a strong market on wall street, the domestic market is fragile...GM, being the largest employer in US may file bankruptcy protection...it is foreseeable that USD will fall.zu
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 uB?v"
預測二：美息於4.5%見頂-
either 4.5% - 4.75% but it really depends on the christmas sales and how Ben Bernanke is going to handle the inflation. With the home mortgage is lowering, rate should be near the peak.;_~]
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 %r'`pV
預測三：恆指到達16,800-18,000點jH0:Xk
BNP predicted 17000, in line with UBS24t
if 預測四 is correct, it is predictable....only "If"fzR:7
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 6l
預測四：匯豐到達160-180港元@kj5T
CSFB's TP for hsbc is 160. However, if you compare, the stock price of HSBC is very close the EURO/Pound trend. I do not expect Euro to rise in a dramatic way, also, John Bond has a new successor, and traditionally, the rookie year after a new chairman will be fragile..coz many "internal" reform and there will be a lot of uncertainties to investors. Interest rate will not be cut in a dramatic way in US, say remain at 4%to 4.25%, and it is not a good news to HSBC FI (household) as they are doing loans.GBNB
So... 160 i s a little bit aggressive.=.Q
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 i4<G0
預測五：恆生國企指數將升至6,800-8,000點水平jf
68000 yes, almost for sure. you have to believe in China in 2006.AF?
the A50 China Tracker fund should be kept an eye on...XVg"Iq
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 =g
預測六：人民幣將超越港幣aa
7.8 is the next milestone... and i suspect it is very near....for another revaluation...Q2R4
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 +N&G
預測七：港股下沉？|X
it turns from alpha trading to beta trading as there are more hedge funds in hk. Volatility high and no actual growth.T=U
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 L2/
預測八：金價衝上每盎司750美元？l
could be... but it is a rather aggressive target... 6xx is what the market is expecting in 2006. If Japan and China are going to raise their gold reserve in accordance to their Fex reserve, both need to buy a significant amount of gold. Consider international average 8.9%, ECB level 15%, while both China and Japan are having less than 2%._6
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 A;*=3Y
預測九：油價再次超越每桶70美元]Q\8=
Predictable, as you see the open interests are piling up to 200K levels again, it just takes an excuse to trigger another rally.
預測十：樓市在農曆年後將會復甦shYC1
questionable...the rate effect won't be that significant, usually takes 3-6 months to be effective, also there is not much income growth in hk....the real estates market is questionable for a rally... however , I will look into the GZ area as they lack the BJ and SH area for a long long time...5*mU
©緣生術數研究社 -- 術數研究 Z|p83
just my $0.02]cU'mU
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2006/01/13 05:18pm 
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